Jordi Vidal-Robert (University of Warwick)

“Habemus papam? Polarization and conflict in the Papal States”

abstract

Does increased disagreement among members of an elite translate into more conflict? Divisions among the elite might weaken the central authority, lowering its ability to suffocate revolts. In this paper we study the effect of division within elite groups on the probability of internal conflicts in the Papal States between 1295 and 1878. Using data from the papal conclaves during this period, we want to understand how divisions within the College of Cardinals (the elite of the Papal States) shaped conflict within the Papal States. We build a dataset that covers our period of study on both measures of division within the elite of the Papal States as well as internal conflicts. In particular, we use different measures of polarization and fractionalization among cardinals as proxies for division within the College of Cardinals. We also assemble a complete database on internal conflicts, wars against other Italian states and European states. Our main result indicates that more polarization among cardinals increased the likelihood of an internal conflict. In particular, we find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization, constructed using cardinals’ nationalities, raises the probability of an internal conflict by 12%. This result is robust to alternative measures of conflict, such as considering only disturbances that occur in the first five years of the papacy. Moreover, we find that polarization among the cardinals does not have an effect on conflict in other regions of Italy. We also find evidence that polarization increases the intensity of conflict, while fractionalization decreases it. These results provide support to recent theories concerning the determinants of conflict.