Camilla Borgna (University of Turin)

Work in Progress Seminar series

The Perpetual Refugee Crisis in Italy and beyond: Humanitarian Emergencies, Prejudice, and Social Capital among Host Communities.

Abstract: Since 2009, approximately 4.8 million people have been recorded crossing European borders. These journeys often entail fatal risks, with at least 40,000 migrants reported dead or missing in the same period – certainly a conservative estimate. Italy remains at the forefront of this crisis, with nearly 23,000 people arriving on its shores between January and April 2025 alone. Existing scholarship on the refugee crisis has largely focused on exclusionary behaviours and attitudes towards outgroups, while studies examining the effect of immigration on host communities has primarily focused on the established presence of immigrants and related ethnic diversity, especially in urban settings. However, less is known about the direct impact of the ongoing refugee crisis on local host communities. We aim at bridging these research traditions by investigating how the refugee crisis has affected the internal dynamics of host communities in Italy. In frontline communities, local residents commonly assist transient migrant populations, who frequently experience acute emergencies. However, if solidaristic responses coexist with exclusionary attitudes, internal social cohesion within these communities may be disrupted. To investigate these dynamics, we will conduct an online survey experiment in July 2025 that will measure: (a) ego-centred networks, to assess social capital; and (b) trust, reciprocity, altruism, and cooperation. To establish the quasi-causal effect of the refugee crisis on these outcomes, we will exploit variations in exposure to incoming refugees across different types of small-sized (< 20,000 inhabitants) Italian municipalities: (i) arrival communities, i.e. border municipalities on the Central and Eastern Mediterranean routes, where migrants enter Italy (e.g. Lampedusa); (ii) settlement communities, i.e. municipalities across Italy where asylum seekers and refugees are temporarily housed within the SAI system or emergency CAS facilities; (iii) escape communities, i.e. border municipalities where migrants attempt to leave Italy for Central and Northern Europe (e.g. Ventimiglia); and (iv) municipalities not directly impacted by the refugee crisis. Our quasi-experimental design treats municipalities of type (i)-(iii) as exposed to varying degrees, while type (iv) municipalities serve control group. The survey will include a representative sample of the Italian population (n=2,000), along with an oversample of residents in (i) arrival communities (n=500), (ii) settlement communities (n=1,000), and (iii) escape communities (n=500). Since municipalities of types (i)-(iii) tend to have smaller populations, we will ensure comparability by including a sufficiently large sample of respondents from small municipalities in the control group (n=1,000). This design allows us to compare social capital, trust and cooperation behaviour between treated residents, the average Italian respondent, and a sample of comparable untreated respondents.

During the work-in-progress seminar, I will present the survey instrument (online questionnaire).

Joint work with Nicolò Cavalli & Chiara Allegri (Bocconi), Viktoriia Tomnyuk (UNITO), Effrosyni Charitopoulou (Princeton)