Gianluigi Conzo (UniTo)

When War Crowds Out the Pandemic: Health and Political Effects of Media Shifts

Abstract: This paper explores the unintended effects of a sudden media shift from pandemic health-crisis coverage to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a Dynamic Difference-in-Differences, we first examine how increased media focus on the war impacted contagion across Italian municipalities, with proximity to U.S. military bases serving as our treatment and proxy for heightened fear. Our findings reveal a temporary spike in infections, particularly in areas closer to bases, driven by increased mobility and a rise in “bunker” Google searches. Secondly, we show that politicians, especially from right-wing parties, gained electoral advantages in subsequent unexpected elections by leveraging war-related fears at the onset of the conflict. Voters in districts near bases responded more to the emotional tone of war-related messaging than its volume, underscoring fear’s influence on political outcomes. In contrast, left-wing parties benefited from the war’s media prominence, as their supporters responded more to issue salience than to emotional tone.