Michael Jones Correa (Cornell University)

“Is America Going to Become Less Conservative?:  Immigrants, Place of Settlement and Partisan Acquisition.”

Abstract

As Latinos become the largest ethnic minority in the United States, commentators have argued that their presence will eventually shift the partisan composition of even the most conservative states.  Will it?  There are competing research findings on mobility and partisanship.  One strand suggests that people move to places that fit their ideological preferences; another posits that contexts re-shape the political attachments of new movers.   Yet a third argues that partisanship and ideology are relatively fixed by adulthood and resistant to change.  How important is context in shaping political preferences?  Will Latino immigrants shift the partisan composition of the states they reside in, or will their own political orientations shift to match those of their contexts?  Using the 2006 LNS, this paper explores how states’ ideological context shapes the partisanship and political orientation of Latino movers and residents.