Stephen Morgan (Cornell University)

“Taking the Cloak Off the DAG:  The New Frontier of Causal Analysis in the Social Sciences”

Abstract

The counterfactual approach to causal analysis will continue to transform the social sciences in the next decade.  The potential outcome model, which was largely developed in statistics and economics between 1975 and 2005, has now been joined by a new generation of graphical causal models that are still in a rapid state of development.  These graphical models are consistent with the potential outcome model of causality, and for the vast majority of social science applications provide a more efficient and transparent apparatus for considering alternative strategies for estimating causal effects.