How long does it take to find a new job when unemployed?

We use worker-specific microdata on contractual employment in Italy to measure the probability of finding a new job, and what kind of employment contract will the worker enter into, after the conclusion of a work contract within the following 90 days.

Contractual transitions

In the 90 days after termination of employment, around 30% of workers have not yet found a new job. For those workers that instead find re-employment, the chart displays job transitions identified by type of contract during the periods 2014-2015 and 2020 (the COVID-19 pandemic period

The probability of finding permanent employment is twice as large if coming from permanent employment compared to coming from a temporary employment contract in 2015. The difference in finding permanent employment across the two kind of previous employment contract shrank in later years.

However, we also find that certain types of temporary contracts provide a gateway to permanent employment. Workers who were employed in an Apprenticeship showing a higher rate of transition to long-term positions.

Job-finding probability over time

We measure the time of re-entry into employment after the termination of an employment relationship. The estimates show that 50% of workers find employment within 1 month, however 30% take longer than 6 months and are at risk of becoming long-term unemployed. The results for the year 2020 suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic worsened the re-employment probability, leading to longer time of re-entry into employment.