Arturo Bertero (University of Turin)

Work in progress seminars

Mobilizing the Apathetic? Affective Polarization, Belief Systems, and Turnout in European Parliament Elections

Abstract: Affective polarization (AP) is widely recognized as corrosive for democratic life, yet it consistently mobilizes voter turnout in national elections. This article asks whether the same dynamic holds in the “second-order” setting of European Parliament (EP) elections. Leveraging pooled data from the European Election Studies (1989–2024; N = 134,630), we provide the first systematic evidence that AP is a strong and consistent predictor of EP turnout. Citizens one standard deviation above the mean in AP are more than six times as likely to report voting, with effects strongest among those typically least engaged (non-partisans and the politically uninterested). Beyond this substantive contribution, we also examine the measurement foundations of PTV-based AP indicators. We show that the spread of scores, mean distance, and a belief constraint index are highly correlated, suggesting that PTVs capture not isolated party evaluations but behavioral intentions embedded in belief systems regarding vote choice. This demonstrates that PTV-based indices already rest on relational assumptions that tie AP to the architecture of belief systems. These findings extend the mobilizing role of AP to second-order elections and connect the study of polarization to long-standing debates on political belief systems.