Lisa Hultman (Uppsala)

International Interventions and Civilian Protection: The Role of Rebel Strength

Jointly organized with Economics Group

Abstract: What saves lives in civil conflicts around the world? International actors frequently employ a variety of measures such as mediation, sanctions, and peacekeeping. What measure works better to reduce violence against civilians by rebel forces and under what circumstances? We hypothesize that the efficacy of these interventions hinges on rebel strength. Mediation works best when rebels are weak, whereas peacekeeping and sanctions are more effective vis-à-vis strong rebels. Conflict actors’ buy-in (consent) as well as each international action’s constraining or incentivizing roles determine the efficacy of international actions in reducing civilian harm. We test our theory with monthly data of rebel civilian killing between 1989 and 2019. Using panel match methods, the strategic selection into intervention is accounted for before estimating the efficacy of each intervention. Our work contributes to the literature on global security governance, providing an integrative view of international measures, beyond the analysis of each measure separately.

Joint work with Hyeran Jo and Yohan Park