Elena Paglialunga (Roma Tre University)

Forecasting the climate-conflict nexus in Africa under SSPs scenarios

Abstract. Aimed by the growing debate on the possible long-term impact of climate change on economic development and peace, this paper proposes a forecasting analysis of armed conflicts under different future socio-economic and climate scenarios. Our analysis consider both the intensive and extensive margins of conflict and different definitions of violence. Using a geo-coded dataset (1° grid) covering the entire African continent up to 2050, we show that climate change has both direct and indirect effects on conflict, the latter being mediated by the agricultural channel, and these effects are not limited in space, but they spillover across neighbouring areas. We also find that the socio-economic context play a crucial role and the impact of climate change is larger in scenarios of high spatial inequality and intense resource exploitation, while it is lower in cases of widespread resource scarcity and reduced competition.